The Colombian Conflict: Uribe's First 17 Months

Abstract

Analysis of our new, 16-year dataset on the Colombian civil war finds under tUribe: guerrilla and paramilitary attacks dropping sharply to long-run averages since 1988, lower for April-December, 2003; government-guerrilla clashes at all-time higs, exceeding guerrillia attacks; civilian killings dropping sharply and continuous to all-time lows, mainly from decreased paramilitary attacks; combatant killings rising sharply to all-time highs; guerrilla tactics shifting toward indiscriminate attacking, forcing civilian injuries to long-run highs; government-to-paramilitary clashes increasing but still uncommon; paramilitary performance in clashes dropping sharply; the ELN seriously weakened, mounting few attacks.